The future of KM

An exploration of historical influences on the development of knowledge management practices and the impact of technological change on the future of the discipline - along with what this could mean for knowledge managers. By Catherine Flutsch, Bird & Bird

I was asked by Ark Group to present my ideas about the future of KM in the final session of the ‘Knowledge Management in the Legal Profession’ conference, held at the end of April.

My thoughts immediately turned to the hot topics of the day, such as the commoditisation of legal services, the changing role of the PSL, the increasing link between KM and business development, and so on. It struck me that there are many other people who are far more qualified to talk on these topics than myself, so I decided to take a slightly different approach.

To prepare for my presentation, I looked back to see what has influenced the development of KM practices. As I outline below, my research showed that the single factor which has overwhelmingly influenced the development of KM is technological development.1 I then looked at what some of the leading theorists are saying about the future of technological development.2 Finally, I thought about what this might mean for KM and for me, as a knowledge manager.

Storage media, technological development and KM
By comparing the development of technology (specifically the development of storage media) and the development of KM practice, it became clear that these two areas are inextricably linked.

From 20,000 BCE, when people were scratching lines into bones and sticks to record the number of days between the phases of the moon, to the invention of papyrus in Egypt in around 2000 BCE, the management of explicit knowledge largely consisted of storage of that knowledge. Dissemination of explicit knowledge to those who did not have (and, therefore, did not need) immediate access to it was rare.

The invention of papyrus triggered the need for a new type of KM and the first library was established in Thebes in 1250 BCE. The first public library, as we would recognise it, was built in Rome in 39 BCE. Explicit knowledge was in the public domain for the first time.

The principles of the management of explicit knowledge, established through the understanding and development of libraries, have remained the foundation on which we manage explicit knowledge to this day.

For the vast majority of human history, technological development has necessitated new strategies to manage explicit knowledge. In 2002, research showed that 92 per cent of all new information produced was stored on magnetic media, mostly on hard disks.3

As knowledge managers, we have responded to this trend by refocusing our efforts from managing hard copy to managing know-how in soft copy.

By contrast, the flow of tacit knowledge has been left relatively unchanged by technological development. In 2002, approximately 18 exabytes of new information flowed through electronic channels. Around 98 per cent of that information was sent and received in telephone calls (including voice and data on both fixed and wireless lines).4

The rate of technological change
There seems to be general agreement in literature that the rate of technological change is getting faster.

The first technological developments (for example, sharp edges, the wheel, ways to create fire on demand, and so on) took tens of thousands of years. By the time paper was invented in China in 105 CE, the rate of technological change had grown exponentially. By 1000 CE, the overall rate of technological change would increase by an order of magnitude in the next 100 years.

Now, some theorists believe that a paradigm shift – the overall rate of technological progress – occurs every few years. While not necessarily a measure of technological progress, the ‘How Much Information?’ study stated in 2002 that from 1999 to 2002, the amount of new information stored on paper, film, magnetic and optical media had doubled.5

Ray Kurzweil, a scientist who pioneered speech recognition technology, estimates that, in the next 100 years, we will experience the equivalent of 20,000 years worth of progress, at today’s rate of exponential growth.6 He says that at some point in the future, the rate of technological change will outpace the rate that the human brain can understand and cope with that change – some of us feel that this point has already been reached!

What can a knowledge manager do?
If technology has dictated the necessity for new ways to manage knowledge and that the rate of technological change is increasing exponentially, how can a knowledge manager respond? Everybody is different but here’s what I have decided that it means for me. I need to make sure that I:

Don’t allow technology to dictate my KM strategy (contrary to the history of KM) by making sure that I have a broad brush-stroke view of what the current technological capabilities are, what’s in the pipeline and what’s likely to be possible in the next 20 to 30 years. My hope is that this will allow me to plan ahead rather than react;
Enjoy (or at least don’t hate) managing change because this aspect of my job will only increase;
Place more emphasis on programmes to ensure the flow of tacit knowledge;
Become faster at identifying and implementing best practice;
Reassess/review my KM programmes and strategies every year to make sure they are still appropriate;
Think about how my programmes and tools can support the management of other types of knowledge – for example, business intelligence – not just legal know-how;
Don’t ignore paper as an important medium on which to create, store and share explicit knowledge. The ‘How Much Information?’ study concluded that the amount of information printed on paper is still increasing but the vast majority of original information on paper is produced by individuals in office documents and postal mail – not in formally published titles such as books, newspapers and journals.

Catherine Flutcsh is head of knowledge management at international firm Bird & Bird. She can be contacted at catherine.flutsch@twobirds.com

References
1. To come to this conclusion I compared time lines covering the development of technology, storage media, and the development of techniques for the management of explicit knowledge. Such time lines are generally produced by universities as course overviews and can be found easily on the internet. I am happy to provide more detail to anybody who e-mails me.
2. The leading theorists in this area tend to be scientists/philosophers. Due to space constrains, in this article, I will refer to only one theorist, Ray Kurzweil. I have chosen Kurzweil because he has some of the most developed, interesting and controversial theories in this area.
3. Lyman, Peter and Hal R. Varian, ‘How Much Information’, 2003. Retrieved from http://www.sims.berkeley.edu/how-much-info-2003 in March 2007
4. Ibid.
5. Op cit.
6. Kurzweil, R., ‘The Law of Accelerating Returns’, www.KurzweilAI.net, 7 March 20